Deal or no Deal: tax cuts for returnees

I crunch the numbers on the 5 year tax cuts for Croatian returnees. Are they really an incentive to return and who does it really benefit?

Figures are calculated for a resident of Zagreb.

Minimum wage of 970 € gross.
48,15 € less is paid raising the net minimum wage from 752,60 € to 801,10 €
For someone with 1 or more children because of deductions there is nothing gained.

Median wage 1537 € Gross
158,03 € less is paid raising the net median wage from 1071,57 € to 1229,60 €
For someone with 1 child net median wage rises from 1137,65 € (with deduction) to 1229,60 €
For someone with 2 or more children because of deductions there is nothing gained.

A typical wage for a job like a school teacher of around 2100 € gross
264,32 € less is paid raising the wage from 1415,68 € to 1680 € (264,32 € increase)
For someone with 1 child net pay rises from 1481,76 € to 1680 € (198,24 € increase)
For someone with 2 children net pay rises from 1574,27 € to 1680 € (105,73 € increase)

A top paid IT professional with pay of 3,400 € gross
509,76 € less is paid raisng the net pay from 2.210,24 € to 2720 €

Each family or individual can have varying parameters that do not fit well with the above calculation it can depend on who’s income children are declared on etc. However, this is what I conclude –

For minimum to median wage returnees there really isn’t much incentive especially if they have children.
For a average professional like a teacher there is some incentive.
The highly paid professional has the most incentive.

What most likely effect will this have on returnee numbers? Likely not much at all as –

the low paid workers that Croatia currently needs are having wages kept down by migrants and the tax income cut benefit is almost nothing.
For average professionals this will be a bonus if they planned to return anyway but most likely not the reason they return.
For higher paid professionals this might bring some back as they will have a decent increase in net pay which a lot of IT professionals have complained about.

The income tax break to me is really a case of mazanje očiju.

If they really wanted to impact with tax breaks then they would need to give a rebate on health insurance and the prvi stup of the pension fund. On a minimum wage that would raise minimum net pay by 280,80 € or over 37,7% and raise median net pay by 388,58 € or over 36%.

In short the cuts are a political marketing gimmick and not serious enough.